Remember when everyone thought Trump could just tweet the market back to life? Yeah, that era just ended.
This week was absolutely brutal for investors, and the numbers tell the story of a market that’s officially lost its training wheels. The Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones both tumbled into “correction territory”—that’s Wall Street speak for “down more than 10% from recent highs”—while the S&P 500 is lurking dangerously close behind. It’s like watching a three-car pileup in slow motion.
Here’s the thing: for months, investors had convinced themselves that Trump’s comments about the Iran war could magically prop up stocks. Economists even gave it a fancy name: the “Trump put.” But this week, that theory got absolutely demolished. Investors were whipsawed by conflicting messages about peace deals, then watched as Trump’s announcement to delay bombing Iran’s energy infrastructure did… basically nothing. The market didn’t care. Oil kept climbing. Stocks kept falling. The put was dead.
The Three Brutal Stats:
First, the Nasdaq 100 is now officially in correction territory, with tech stocks getting hammered from multiple angles. Remember all that AI hype? Yeah, that’s colliding with the Iran war shock, and tech is paying the price. The Nasdaq got there first because the sector was already under pressure from questions about whether AI actually delivers returns or just hype.
Second, the S&P 500 has now suffered five straight weeks of losses. That’s not a typo. Five. Straight. Weeks. The index is creeping toward its own correction, and analysts at BCA Research think Trump would need to see a double-digit decline before he’d actually pivot his Iran strategy. We’re getting close.
Third—and this is the kicker—Brent crude just hit its highest level since 2022, settling around $113 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down, Chinese container ships are getting turned away, and the International Energy Agency just called this the largest oil shock ever recorded. It’s tied with the 1970s disruption and the Ukraine war in terms of how much oil got yanked out of the market. That’s not hyperbole; that’s just the reality.
The Silver Lining (Sort Of):
Not everyone’s doom-and-gloom. Apollo’s chief economist Torsten Sløk thinks the market is overreacting and that this volatility will be temporary. He reckons the Iran shock isn’t big enough to derail the tailwinds from AI spending, industrial renaissance, and whatever “One Big Beautiful Bill” is supposed to do. Maybe he’s right. Maybe this is just a speed bump.
But here’s the honest take: when the “Trump put” stops working and oil is at 2022 highs, investors stop listening to reassurances. They start listening to their portfolios. And right now, those portfolios are screaming.
