Remember when your friend bragged about their “can’t miss” stock pick? Well, if they picked The Trade Desk (TTD) at the start of 2025, they’re probably not talking about it anymore. This digital advertising darling just earned the dubious honor of being the S&P 500’s worst performer, down a gut-wrenching 70%. Ouch.
To put that in perspective, even companies dealing with broke consumers—like Lululemon and Chipotle—didn’t get hammered this hard. So what the hell happened?
When Perfect Execution Goes Perfectly Wrong
For years, The Trade Desk was that reliable friend who always showed up on time. They never missed revenue targets, growth was steady, and investors treated them like the golden child of ad tech. Then 2025 happened.
It started with something unthinkable: they actually missed revenue expectations. For a company that built its reputation on flawless execution, this was like watching your straight-A student fail a pop quiz. Suddenly, all those platform transitions and heavy investments in AI tools looked less like “strategic innovation” and more like expensive distractions.
Growth slowed from the mid-20% range to high teens—still decent by normal standards, but when you’re priced for perfection, “decent” doesn’t cut it. Add in the absence of political ad spending (which boosted 2024 numbers), and you’ve got a recipe for disappointment.
The Big Boys Crashed the Party
While TTD was busy perfecting their “open internet” philosophy, Amazon decided to play hardball. They started snatching up exclusive deals with streaming giants like Netflix and Disney, essentially building their own walled garden that shut out competitors.
Think of it like this: TTD was running a nice, open marketplace where everyone could play fair. Meanwhile, Amazon built a private club with all the cool kids and started charging premium prices for access. Guess where advertisers wanted to spend their money?
Google and Meta weren’t sitting idle either. They doubled down on AI-powered personalization, making TTD’s offerings look a bit… vanilla by comparison.
The Final Insult
As if losing 70% wasn’t bad enough, Nasdaq decided to kick TTD out of the Nasdaq-100 index. It’s like getting dumped and then having your ex change their relationship status to “single” in front of all your friends.
Is There Hope?
Here’s the thing: TTD still has solid fundamentals. They’re growing in connected TV and retail media, their AI tools are gaining traction, and some advertisers still prefer independent platforms over the tech giants’ walled gardens.
The question is whether you’re looking at a value opportunity or trying to catch a falling knife. The company’s “open internet” bet might pay off long-term, especially if privacy regulations start favoring independent platforms. But with competition this fierce and the Nasdaq demotion creating more selling pressure, this turnaround story needs more than hope—it needs results.
Sometimes the market’s biggest losers become tomorrow’s biggest winners. Sometimes they just keep losing. With TTD, we’re about to find out which story this becomes.