When the federal government decides to become one of your biggest customers, pay attention. That’s exactly what happened when President Trump signed off on “Project Vault” — a $12 billion initiative to build a U.S. critical mineral reserve. Think of it as a Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but for the obscure elements that power everything from AI data centers to F-35 fighter jets.
The numbers tell you why this matters. China currently controls roughly 70% of global rare earth mining and a staggering 90% of refining capacity. That’s not a supply chain — it’s a dependency. And Beijing has already shown it will restrict exports during trade disputes. With $10 billion in Export-Import Bank financing and $2 billion in private capital, Project Vault is Washington’s most aggressive move yet to break that grip.
The market responded immediately. Critical Metals Corp (CRML) surged 35% the day of the announcement. But the real question for investors isn’t which stock pops on the headline — it’s which companies have the actual infrastructure to deliver. MP Materials (MP) operates the only functioning rare earth mine in America, at Mountain Pass, California, and is expanding into refining. Energy Fuels (UUUU) runs one of the few U.S. facilities capable of producing separated rare earth oxides at its White Mesa Mill in Utah. USA Rare Earth (USAR) is developing the Round Top project in Texas, focused on heavy rare earths used in military applications.
There’s a second-order play here too. Building domestic rare earth capacity requires a massive industrial buildout — mining equipment from Caterpillar (CAT), specialty chemicals from Olin (OLN), and facility engineering from Fluor (FLR). The opportunity goes well beyond the miners themselves.
The realistic timeline? Three to seven years before meaningful domestic production comes online. Mining projects face permitting, environmental review, and hundreds of millions in capital requirements. What’s changed isn’t the timeline — it’s the risk profile. Federal purchase guarantees give these projects the revenue visibility they need to secure financing. Rare earth supply security is now a bipartisan priority, with both recent administrations invoking the Defense Production Act to push things forward. For patient investors, this could be one of the clearest long-term policy tailwinds in the market.