Remember when finding the next big tech stock meant following venture capitalists around Palo Alto? Well, plot twist: now you should probably be stalking government officials in D.C. instead.
Here’s what happened while everyone was arguing about whether Nvidia’s earnings were “perfect” or just “really, really good”: The U.S. government quietly decided to become the world’s most powerful venture capitalist. And honestly? They’re crushing it.
We’re talking about a modern Manhattan Project for AI, except instead of building bombs, they’re building portfolios. The feds are taking actual equity stakes in companies they think will win the 21st-century tech race. It’s like if your uncle who works for the government suddenly started day-trading, except with national security implications.
When Uncle Sam Picks Winners, Stocks Go Boom
The proof is in the pudding (or should I say, the profits). When Washington decided to back certain companies, their stocks didn’t just rise—they launched into orbit:
- Intel shot up 77% this year after getting government love
- MP Materials rocketed 276% (yes, you read that right)
- Lithium Americas climbed 50%
- Trilogy Metals surged 204%
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is sitting there with its modest 13% gain like “Am I a joke to you?”
Take MP Materials as the perfect example. This company runs America’s only major rare-earth mine (because apparently we need those for everything from fighter jets to your iPhone). Smart money saw the writing on the wall: China controls rare earths, America needs them, so Uncle Sam would probably want to make friends with the one U.S. company that digs them up.
Boom. Pentagon drops $400 million for a 15% stake. Stock triples. Mic drop.
The New Playbook: Follow the Federal Money
Here’s the thing most Wall Street analysts are missing: this isn’t random. There’s actually a pattern to Washington’s stock-picking strategy, and it’s surprisingly simple:
Right Industry: Is it critical for national security? Think AI, semiconductors, critical minerals, cybersecurity—basically anything that keeps America from having to ask China nicely for important stuff.
Right Company: Are they the obvious leader who can actually solve the problem? No participation trophies here.
Right Connections: Do they have U.S. operations and the kind of relationships that get you invited to the right D.C. dinner parties?
It’s like a dating app, but for national security investments.
Why This Changes Everything
Most investors are still treating these moves like isolated incidents. “Oh, cool, the government invested in a mining company.” They’re missing the forest for the trees.
This is Act 1 of a much bigger story. The Office of Strategic Capital has literally published a roadmap of every chokepoint in America’s AI supply chain. Translation: they’ve made a shopping list, and they’re just getting started.
The old rules of tech investing—follow the Silicon Valley VCs, bet on the flashiest startups—are getting rewritten in real time. Now it’s about following the federal money and understanding which companies Washington thinks are too important to fail.
So while everyone else is debating whether we’re in an AI bubble, maybe the real question is: are you positioned for the government-backed AI boom that’s just getting started?