Markets opened ugly on Monday. The Dow dropped 600 points at the lows. The S&P 500 fell 1.2%. Oil spiked. Gold ripped past $5,300. VIX hit its highest level of 2026. The Iran conflict has everyone in full panic mode.
But here’s what the data actually says: you should be getting ready to buy, not sell.
Wells Fargo ran the numbers going back to World War II. The finding? The S&P 500 has posted a median gain of 0.4% two weeks after a major geopolitical event. That’s not a typo — the market doesn’t just recover, it goes green. The caveat: in the first one to seven days after an event, the benchmark typically posts a small loss. Translation: the initial pain is real, but it’s also temporary.
JPMorgan is singing a similar tune, though with more caution. Their strategists called the current setup “tactically cautious” and said they’re preparing for “a multi-week period of elevated uncertainty.” But here’s the money quote: they expect a “1-2 week decline in risk assets, creating a buy-the-dip opportunity as the market looks through the initial pullback.”
The pattern is remarkably consistent. Going back to 1980, the S&P 500 is, on average, unchanged one month after a geopolitical crisis begins. That’s the average — which includes events far more destructive than what we’re seeing now. And studies consistently show that stocks recover within about 30 days of a conflict starting.
Even Barclays, which is among the most bearish voices on the current situation, advised against panic selling. Their strategists wrote that this week is “too early to buy any dip,” but notably didn’t say the dip isn’t worth buying — just that timing matters. The message is clear: let the dust settle for a week or two, then step in.
Meanwhile, the market is already trying to tell you something. By midday Monday, the Dow had recovered from -600 points to -166. The S&P cut its losses by more than half. Tech names like Nvidia and Microsoft were actually green on the day. That’s not panic. That’s institutional money quietly repositioning.
The traders who make money on days like these aren’t the ones selling into the fear. They’re the ones building watchlists while everyone else refreshes their news feeds. History is on their side — and usually, that’s the only edge you need.