Walmart just dropped its fiscal Q4 earnings and crushed it — 74 cents adjusted EPS versus 73 cents expected, revenue of $190.66 billion versus $190.43 billion expected. But those were the boring numbers. The real story was buried in the earnings call, where new CEO John Furner casually revealed that Walmart’s AI shopping assistant, Sparky, is driving average order sizes roughly 35% higher than non-users. Half of Walmart’s app users have already tried it.
Read that again: a chatbot is generating 35% larger baskets. And half the app user base is already hooked. That’s not a gimmick — that’s a business model shift happening in real time. Furner, who took over from Doug McMillon on February 1st and inherited a company that just hit a $1 trillion market cap, positioned what he called “agentic commerce” as the bridge between digital shopping and physical fulfillment. The AI understands what you want, builds your cart, and figures out the fastest way to get it to your door. Walmart has partnerships with both OpenAI and Alphabet to power it.
The timing is interesting. Amazon just surpassed Walmart as the largest company by annual revenue — $716.9 billion versus Walmart’s $713.2 billion. It’s the first time that’s happened. But Walmart isn’t sitting still. E-commerce sales in the U.S. surged 27% year-over-year, the 15th straight quarter of double-digit digital growth. Store-fulfilled deliveries jumped 50%. And here’s the profit angle: advertising income and membership fees now represent nearly one-third of Walmart’s operating profit. Walmart Connect, its ad business, grew 41% in the quarter. The Vizio acquisition delivered triple-digit ad growth.
The darker subplot: Walmart’s CFO John David Rainey noted a widening spending gap between income groups. Almost all growth in categories like fashion came from households earning over $100K. Meanwhile, the lowest-income shoppers are clearly under pressure — “wallets are stretched” was the exact phrase. Economists call it the K-shaped economy. Walmart is riding the right side of the K, pulling in wealthier shoppers with faster delivery and a better digital experience while still winning on price for everyone else.
The stock dipped 1.38% on the day, largely because the full-year earnings guidance of $2.75 to $2.85 per share fell short of Wall Street’s $2.96 estimate. But Walmart has a long track record of sandbagging forecasts — the new CFO basically said as much on the call. The company also announced a fresh $30 billion share buyback, replacing the old $20 billion program. For investors, the real question isn’t whether Walmart will beat guidance — it’s how fast AI-driven commerce reshapes margins. That 35% basket lift from Sparky? It’s the kind of metric that makes analysts rethink the entire model.