So the Strait of Hormuz is having a moment—and not the good kind. About 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through this narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, and right now it’s basically a geopolitical hot zone. Here’s the thing though: everyone’s obsessing over crude prices, which just proved they’re about as predictable as a coin flip. Oil nearly reversed 30% in a single day on Monday. Yeah, you read that right.
The real play isn’t betting on oil prices. It’s finding stocks that make money whether crude is at $85 or $120.
Devon Energy (DVN) is one of America’s biggest shale producers, and it just merged with Coterra Energy. The beauty here? Its breakeven oil price is low enough that it stays profitable even when crude pulls back. Plus, Devon can lock in current prices using futures—basically hedging its bets regardless of where spot oil goes. But here’s the kicker: Devon’s got a stranded gas problem in West Texas that’s finally resolving. New pipeline capacity is coming online that connects its production to LNG export facilities on the Gulf Coast, right when global LNG supply is getting tight. That’s a second tailwind most people aren’t talking about.
Equinor (EQNR) is Europe’s largest piped gas supplier, and it’s been here before. When Russia cut off gas supplies after the 2022 Ukraine invasion, Equinor stepped in and shares roughly doubled. Dividends grew for four straight years. Now Qatar’s been forced to curtail LNG production after Iranian missile strikes hit its energy infrastructure. European gas prices are already spiking. Equinor shares are still trading nearly 20% below their 2022 peak—which means there’s room to run.
Mosaic (MOS) is the sneaky play. The Gulf isn’t just an energy hub; it’s a major nitrogen fertilizer supplier, and those exports have basically stopped. CF Industries and Nutrien have already moved up 40% and 20% respectively since January. But Mosaic produces potash and phosphate—different categories—so it hasn’t gotten the same love. Here’s what Wall Street’s missing: rising nitrogen prices are already changing crop planting decisions, and that ripple effect has implications for Mosaic that haven’t fully priced in yet.
The Risk Factor: Yeah, oil prices could reverse again. But Devon and Equinor’s low breakeven costs mean they stay profitable even if crude tanks. And the fertilizer market shift behind Mosaic is a completely separate dynamic from oil prices anyway.
The lesson here? When geopolitics shakes markets, the winners aren’t always the obvious ones. They’re the companies with structural advantages that work regardless of which way the headlines swing.