Look, I get it. The market’s been doing that thing where it makes you question every life choice that led you to owning stocks. Down 5% from recent highs, job growth hitting the brakes harder than a teenager with a learner’s permit, and everyone’s suddenly an expert on tariff policy.
But here’s the thing your anxiety-riddled brain doesn’t want to hear: this is totally normal. Like, embarrassingly normal.
The Numbers Don’t Lie (Unlike Your Portfolio App)
Since the 1950s, the S&P 500 has had about 38 corrections. That’s one every 1.84 years, which means we’re basically right on schedule since the last one in 2022. It’s like clockwork, except the clock is made of pure chaos and investor tears.
ADP just dropped some less-than-stellar jobs numbers – only 77,000 new jobs in February versus the expected 148,000. The culprit? “Policy uncertainty and hiring hesitancy,” which is economist-speak for “nobody knows what the heck is happening with tariffs.”
Trump threw the auto industry a bone with a one-month tariff exemption, and stocks rallied like someone just announced free coffee in the break room. But here’s the kicker – uncertainty is still the name of the game.
Gold Miners: The Weird Kid Everyone’s Ignoring
While everyone’s obsessing over tech stocks, there’s this bizarre situation happening with gold miners. Gold’s been hitting all-time highs like it’s trying to win a participation trophy, but gold mining stocks? They’re flatter than a pancake at IHOP.
This makes zero sense. Normally, when gold goes up, mining stocks go up 2-3x harder because of operating leverage. It’s like if Netflix stock stayed flat while everyone and their grandmother started binge-watching shows.
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is trading at just 12 times forward earnings – a 44% discount to the S&P 500. That’s not just cheap; that’s “clearance rack at Target” cheap.
The Contrarian Play That Actually Makes Sense
Here’s where it gets interesting. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is screaming “Extreme Fear,” which, if you know anything about Warren Buffett’s playbook, is basically a dinner bell for smart money.
TrendSpider has this neat little strategy: buy QQQ when it’s 10%+ off its 20-week high. Over the last decade, this move has delivered 13.5% average returns six months later with an 82% win rate. Those are better odds than finding a parking spot at Costco on a Saturday.
The Bottom Line
Market corrections are like bad weather – inevitable, temporarily annoying, but they always pass. The S&P typically bounces back 8% one month after hitting bottom and 24% a year later.
So while everyone else is panic-selling and checking their portfolios every five minutes like they’re waiting for a text back, maybe it’s time to channel your inner contrarian. As Rob Arnott puts it: “In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.”
Just remember – don’t bet the farm, but don’t let fear keep you on the sidelines when opportunity comes knocking either.