Remember when everyone and their cousin’s dog was obsessed with AI stocks? Yeah, that party’s winding down. And Bill Smead—the guy who’s been quietly crushing it with his value fund (up 6.75% this year while growth stocks were having an existential crisis)—called this shift months ago. Now he’s ready to tell you exactly where the smart money is moving.
Here’s the setup: The stock market is basically a teenager who just discovered their parents’ credit card. Valuations are at all-time highs, concentration is bonkers (a handful of mega-cap tech stocks are carrying the whole market on their backs), and the Warren Buffett Indicator—which measures total stock market cap against GDP—is sitting at a ridiculous 216%. That’s not a green light. That’s a flashing red warning sign.
Smead’s thesis is simple: growth stocks have had the greatest 15-year run in history. They’re exhausted. Meanwhile, value stocks—the boring, overlooked stuff nobody wants—are about to have their moment. And he’s not just theorizing; he’s putting real money where his mouth is.
## The Housing Play
Here’s where it gets interesting. Smead is loading up on homebuilders—specifically DR Horton and Lennar. Why? Because demographics are about to hit like a plot twist nobody saw coming. There are more 20-to-40-year-olds than ever before, but fewer of them actually own homes. When mortgage rates finally come down (and they’re already starting to), these folks are going to rush into the market. And when they do, we’re going to need a *lot* of new homes.
But here’s the kicker: Smead thinks prospective homebuyers will fund their down payments by cashing out their gains from—you guessed it—tech stocks. He literally said it: “If you’re going to rob someone to get money, who would you rob right now? Well, you’d rob the S&P 500, and you’d rob tech stocks.” Money is already flowing out of growth stocks and into mortgage rates are already coming down. The pattern is playing out in real time.
## The Wildcard: U-Haul
Then there’s U-Haul, which Smead describes as “very depressed.” But here’s the thing: when all those young people finally buy homes, they’re going to need to move. And they’re going to need storage. U-Haul is positioned to benefit massively from this housing boom.
Plus—and this is the part that makes Smead’s eyes light up—the market is completely undervaluing the company’s balance sheet. The entire market cap of U-Haul is basically priced as if it’s just the storage business. The $5 billion leasing operation? That’s basically free.
## The Bottom Line
Smead’s not saying growth stocks are going to zero. He’s saying the easy money has been made, and the next decade of returns is going to come from places most people aren’t looking. Value stocks. Homebuilders. Unsexy companies with solid fundamentals.
After 15 years of tech dominance, it’s finally good to be boring again.