Ron Baron made the bet of a lifetime back in 2017. He threw down on SpaceX when it was valued at $22 billion. Now that SpaceX has gone public, that bet could go down as one of the greatest investments ever. Good for him. Seriously.
But here’s the thing: just because Ron Baron can afford to play doesn’t mean you should.
When a billionaire invests in a company, they can wait years for it to pay off. They can ride the emotional roller coaster. They can afford to be early and patient. Most of us? We can’t. And that’s the real lesson as SpaceX begins trading.
Great Companies Can Still Be Terrible Stocks
Let’s talk about Facebook. Remember when everyone was losing their minds over the Facebook IPO in May 2012? The stock was priced at $38, and investors were practically trampling each other to get in. FOMO was real.
Then reality hit. By August, Facebook had crashed to $17.50. That’s a 50% loss from the IPO price. Ouch.
Here’s the kicker: Facebook eventually became a monster winner—up over 1,300% since it went public. But the people who chased the IPO? They got absolutely destroyed on the way up. Amazon fell 90% from its dot-com peak. Google had brutal pullbacks. Great stocks don’t move in straight lines, and IPO day is rarely the best entry point.
I have a simple rule: wait at least a year before buying an IPO. It sounds boring when everyone’s talking about a stock that could soar on day one. But after decades in this game, I’ve learned that the best time to buy a great company isn’t always the first time Wall Street lets you buy it.
The Data Problem
Here’s another reason to pump the brakes: you don’t have any real data yet.
After a company’s been public for a year, you can actually calculate reward-to-risk. You can look at alpha. You can study volatility. You can get four quarters of fundamentals and run it through a proper analysis model. You can stop guessing.
SpaceX is complicated. There’s the launch business, Starlink, and a bunch of long-term projects that could be incredibly valuable—or not. As an investor, you want to know which part of the business is actually driving growth. Right now? It’s still speculative. A year from now, you’ll have a much clearer picture.
The Elon Factor
Let’s be honest: Elon Musk is a genius. He reinvented the auto industry. He restarted America’s space program. He built the world’s largest satellite internet network. That’s extraordinary.
But here’s the practical question: can you afford the volatility that comes with Elon?
When you invest in a Musk company, you’re not just investing in the business. You’re also accepting the market’s reaction to Elon himself. A single headline can move billions in market value. His political comments, public battles, and unpredictable behavior have all created added volatility around Tesla at different times.
That doesn’t erase what he’s accomplished. But it does add another layer of risk.
What You Should Actually Do
There’s $7 trillion in cash on the sidelines. Some of that money will naturally flow into the market, and high-profile IPOs like SpaceX could pull more in. That’s bullish for growth stocks.
But bullish doesn’t mean blind. June is seasonally strong, and July earnings should be great. But August and early September? That’s the seasonally weakest period for markets. If we see drawdowns this summer, don’t be shocked.
Bottom line: you need to know what you own, what you’re missing, and when to be aggressive versus cautious. SpaceX might be a great company. It’s just not the right time to buy it yet.
