Remember when your mom told you timing is everything? Turns out she wasn’t just talking about asking for your allowance increase – she was accidentally giving you stock market advice.
Here’s the thing nobody talks about at cocktail parties: the stock market has seasons, just like your favorite pumpkin spice latte. And no, I’m not talking about “sell in May and go away” – that’s like saying “don’t eat carbs after 6 PM.” We’re talking about something way more specific and frankly, way cooler.
Take Target, for example. You know, the place where you go for toilet paper and somehow leave with a cart full of throw pillows and regret. Between June 22 and July 21 every year for the past 15 years, Target’s stock has gone up. Not sometimes. Not usually. Every. Single. Time.
We’re talking 100% accuracy here, folks. That’s better than your weather app, your GPS, and definitely better than your dating track record.
The average gain during this magical month? 5.2%. Last year it jumped 10.3%. That’s like finding money in your winter coat, except it’s in your brokerage account and it happens on schedule.
Home Depot follows a similar script. From June 15 to July 27, it’s risen 93% of the time over 15 years, averaging 4.7% gains. It’s like the stock market’s version of a reliable friend who always shows up when they say they will.
Now, before you start thinking this is some mystical market voodoo, let me break it down. This isn’t about reading tea leaves or consulting your horoscope (though honestly, both might be more reliable than some financial advisors I know). This is about data – cold, hard, beautiful data.
Think about it: retailers gear up for back-to-school shopping, home improvement stores see summer project surges, and certain sectors just naturally ebb and flow with human behavior patterns. We’re predictable creatures, and our spending habits create predictable stock movements.
The folks at TradeSmith have been nerding out over this stuff, running 50,000 tests daily (because apparently some people have that kind of time and computing power). Their seasonal trading system has delivered 857% total growth over 18 years. That’s more than double what the S&P 500 managed during the same period.
Even in 2007 – you know, when everything was basically on fire – their seasonal approach still averaged 37.9% annual returns. That’s like being the only person at the party who didn’t get food poisoning.
The beautiful part? This isn’t about picking the next Tesla or trying to time the market like some Wall Street hotshot. It’s about recognizing that businesses have rhythms, just like everything else in life. Starbucks sells more pumpkin spice lattes in fall, not spring. Retail stocks often surge before holiday seasons. Energy stocks move with heating and cooling demands.
So maybe, just maybe, your investment strategy shouldn’t just be “buy low, sell high” (thanks for that groundbreaking advice, Uncle Bob). Maybe it should include looking at your calendar and asking: “What season is it for this stock?”
Because sometimes the best investment advice comes from the most obvious place – the passage of time itself.