Here’s a fun thought experiment: What if the government’s big tax giveaway gets completely wiped out by something as mundane as oil prices? Welcome to 2026, where that’s actually a real possibility.
Tavis McCourt, an equity strategist at Raymond James, just laid out a scenario that would make any accountant weep. Picture this: oil stays elevated at a $20-per-barrel premium above pre-war levels. Sounds technical? Here’s the translation: Americans would collectively fork over an extra $150 billion a year at the pump. That’s not chump change—that’s literally the same amount Congress just handed out in tax cuts from Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
Let’s do the math together. Americans normally spend about $400 billion annually on gasoline. A sustained $20 jump in oil prices would push that to $550 billion. That’s a 38% increase from where crude was before the US-Iran conflict kicked off. So yeah, your tax refund check? It might just get vacuumed up by your local gas station.
The Iran war has already sent oil prices on a wild ride. Brent crude nearly hit $120 a barrel last weekend—a level that would’ve made this scenario feel inevitable. But here’s where it gets interesting: prices have already started cooling. By Tuesday, Brent was trading around $87 a barrel, down from that terrifying $120 peak. Trump even suggested the war might be winding down, which apparently is good news for your wallet.
McCourt’s bear-case scenario is basically the financial equivalent of “what if everything goes wrong?” It’s not his baseline forecast—he’s just pointing out the risk. And honestly, history suggests we might dodge this bullet. Oil price shocks typically don’t stick around for long. The spikes after the first Iraq War in the 1990s and Russia’s Ukraine invasion in 2022 both fizzled out after a few months. Oil markets have a way of adjusting and stabilizing, even when geopolitics gets messy.
The real kicker? McCourt himself admits he has no idea what’s actually going to happen. “I wouldn’t believe anybody who had a forecast,” he told Business Insider. “I think we’re into the unknown at this point.” Translation: Everyone’s basically guessing, and anyone claiming certainty is probably selling something.
So what does this mean for you? If you were counting on that tax refund to feel like a real win, maybe temper expectations. The government’s fiscal stimulus could get partially offset by energy prices beyond anyone’s control. It’s the kind of irony that makes you wonder if someone’s writing this script.
The good news: oil prices are already trending down, and historical precedent suggests they’ll keep cooling. The bad news: we’re genuinely in uncharted territory, and nobody really knows how this plays out. Welcome to investing in 2026—where your tax refund might be held hostage by Middle East geopolitics.