SpaceX (SPCX) made history on June 12, 2026, with the largest IPO ever — raising $75 billion at $135 per share, valuing Elon Musk’s rocket company at roughly $1.77 trillion. At that price, SpaceX traded at over 90 times revenue, the highest price-to-sales ratio ever recorded at an IPO. History is not kind to these multiples. Amazon briefly traded at 30x sales at its dot-com peak before cratering 97%. Cisco hit 25x sales before declining 90% — and didn’t reclaim its 2000 high until December 2025, 25 years later. Qualcomm hit 30x sales before falling 88%. Every one of these companies survived and thrived — eventually. But the investors who paid peak multiples waited decades for breakeven. SpaceX at 90x sales broke every prior valuation precedent.
The mechanics of this IPO created structural headwinds from the start. Morgan Stanley allocated roughly 30% of the deal — approximately $22.5 billion worth of shares — to retail investors. That created an enormous pool of early shareholders with no lockup restrictions and limited conviction, classic conditions for post-IPO volatility. The numbers bear this out: large IPOs priced above $1 billion have a dismal three-year track record compared to the broader market. The Figma IPO in July 2025 is a recent cautionary tale: it priced at $33, surged to $122 in a retail frenzy, and now trades around $22 — an -82% drawdown for anyone who chased the peak. SpaceX’s initial post-IPO enthusiasm has given way to a reckoning with the math, and average retail buyers who participated in the first-week frenzy are now underwater.
The lesson here is not that SpaceX is a bad business — it may ultimately be transformative. The lesson is about entry price and timing. Retail investors who bought into the IPO hype are experiencing exactly what happens when you pay 90x sales for any company, no matter how compelling the story. SpaceX is not yet profitable. At a $1.77 trillion valuation, investors priced in decades of perfect execution. The better playbook — supported by decades of IPO data — is to wait 6 to 18 months post-listing for the hype cycle to reset and the share price to find a more rational level. If SpaceX’s Starlink business hits its revenue targets and the company reaches profitability, there will be a far better entry point than $135 per share. Patience is the most profitable trade right now.
