The oil market just received a major jolt of positive news. At least 20 tankers that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for more than three months — collectively carrying 35 million barrels of crude — have now exited the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S.-Iran deal, according to data from Kpler, a firm that tracks global trade flows. Total confirmed oil shipments through Hormuz have climbed to approximately 4.8 million barrels per day since the agreement, marking the highest flow since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. The U.S. Navy lifted its blockade of Iran on June 18, and the Treasury Department waived sanctions on Iran’s oil sales through August, clearing the way for the tanker backlog to unwind.
The scale of the disruption — and its reversal — is significant. Before the conflict, roughly 15 million barrels per day flowed through the strait, one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints. Current flows at 4.8 million bpd still represent a fraction of prewar levels, but the trend is clearly improving. The Joint Maritime Information Center downgraded the Hormuz threat level from ‘critical’ to ‘moderate’ in its latest advisory — the first positive safety reclassification in months. Iranian tankers carrying about 21 million barrels exited Hormuz in June alone, while additional ships totaling 51 million barrels loaded since late April have also begun moving. Oil prices reacted: Brent crude broke below $75 for the first time since the conflict began. JPMorgan’s top oil analyst now forecasts Brent exiting 2026 at just $64 a barrel, a meaningful drop from today’s levels. Meanwhile, Chevron (CVX) just signed a 20-year natural gas supply deal with Microsoft to power a new Texas data center, highlighting that energy demand from AI infrastructure is real, long-term, and growing regardless of near-term oil price fluctuations.
For investors, the Hormuz reopening creates a bifurcated opportunity set. Lower oil prices benefit consumers, reduce inflation pressure, and could give the Federal Reserve more room to cut rates — a broadly positive macro development. But energy stocks don’t move in lockstep with crude prices, and the sector is attracting fresh attention from strategists who see cheap valuations and structural AI-driven demand as a compelling combination. Strategist Adam Parker recently turned bullish on energy, pointing to deeply discounted multiples relative to the broader market. Key names to watch: Chevron (CVX), GE Vernova (GEV), and Caterpillar (CAT) — all direct beneficiaries of the expanding AI-to-energy infrastructure buildout. The real data point to track isn’t how many ships are leaving the Gulf — it’s how many are going in. That leading indicator will tell you whether the full supply normalization is truly underway.
