SanDisk laid out an aggressive multi-year growth plan at its Investor Day on Thursday, targeting mid-to-high teens revenue growth and gross margins approaching 80% through fiscal 2030. Shares jumped roughly 15% on the news, extending a rally that has already made SNDK one of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year, up more than 3,000% since its spinoff from Western Digital. Management also said it would return 100% of excess cash to shareholders, a signal to Wall Street that the memory-chip maker sees durable profitability ahead, not just a temporary pricing spike.
The bullish outlook comes on the heels of a blowout fiscal fourth-quarter report earlier this month, when SanDisk posted earnings per share of $39.25 against a $33.28 estimate and revenue of $8.97 billion, up 371.6% year over year. The company locked in long-term supply agreements through fiscal 2028, addressing a key investor worry: how much of the recent windfall was driven by rising NAND flash prices versus actual unit demand. SanDisk disclosed that roughly two-thirds of its recent sequential revenue growth came from higher prices rather than volume, a dynamic that has fueled skepticism about how long the good times can last. Analysts have responded by lifting price targets sharply, with Bernstein raising its target to $3,000 from lower levels on expectations of a multi-year global NAND shortage tied to AI data center buildouts.
For retail investors, the stock’s run has been extraordinary, and extraordinary runs invite extraordinary scrutiny. The bull case rests on AI infrastructure demand keeping memory chips scarce for years, not quarters. The bear case is simpler: pricing cycles turn, and when they do, they turn fast. If you’re holding SNDK, Thursday’s Investor Day gives you a clearer roadmap and a management team willing to commit to specific margin targets — worth watching against actual results next quarter. If you’re on the sidelines, the valuation already prices in years of near-perfect execution, so any wobble in NAND pricing could hit hard.
