While copper has dominated the AI infrastructure trade — the Global X Copper Miners ETF is up nearly 100% over the past year — a quieter but equally critical metals story is unfolding in aluminum. Every mile of high-voltage transmission line feeding an AI data center consumes one to two tons of aluminum per megawatt delivered, and the supply side is finally responding to years of pent-up demand. Smelters that shut down during the 2022-2024 price slump are now restarting, a signal that the metals market sees this AI-driven demand surge as durable rather than temporary.
The specifics back up the thesis. Global aluminum demand is projected to climb from 104 million tons in 2024 to roughly 120 million tons by 2030, driven largely by data center power infrastructure. Prices reflect the tightening: the U.S. delivery premium has surged to about $2,450 per ton above the London Metal Exchange basis price, while the LME basis itself has climbed from $2,200 per ton in early 2024 to roughly $3,305 today. In response, Magnitude 7 Metals is restarting a 75,000-ton-per-year potline at its New Madrid, Missouri smelter, and Norsk Hydro plans a similar 75,000-ton restart at its Slovalco facility in Slovakia. Century Aluminum has already brought its Mt. Holly, South Carolina smelter back to full capacity, adding roughly 50,000 metric tons of annual output — a 10% bump to total U.S. aluminum production, on top of the 30% share the company already commands.
For investors, this is a supply-response story worth tracking alongside the more crowded copper trade. Restarting a mothballed smelter isn’t cheap or fast, which means producers who move first — Century Aluminum, Norsk Hydro, and operators tied to Magnitude 7 Metals — could capture pricing power before broader capacity comes back online through 2027 and beyond. The takeaway for retail portfolios: aluminum producers and related industrial metals plays offer a less-crowded way to get AI infrastructure exposure than chasing chipmakers or hyperscalers directly. Watch delivery premiums and LME pricing trends as a leading indicator — sustained strength there confirms the restart wave is being driven by real demand, not speculation.
