First Solar just got a significant upgrade in its price target from Wells Fargo, which raised its estimate to $320 per share — up from $255 — suggesting 42% upside from recent levels. The bank kept its Overweight rating on the stock and pointed to a specific, underappreciated catalyst: the outcome of a U.S. government investigation into imported polysilicon. That investigation, launched by the Department of Commerce in July 2025 under Section 232 of trade law, is expected to conclude by early August 2026 — and its result could dramatically alter the competitive landscape for domestic solar manufacturers.
Here’s the core of the trade: polysilicon is the key raw material in solar panels, and China currently dominates global production. The U.S. has already slapped heavy tariffs on Chinese polysilicon imports, but a Section 232 ruling could widen U.S. access to polysilicon from other sources — making it cheaper for companies like First Solar to source materials and scale production. Wells Fargo analyst Praneeth Satish said a favorable ruling could push average selling prices higher on 2028+ bookings by roughly $0.09 per watt. In the bank’s upside scenario, that pricing power translates to a significant earnings beat. Of the 42 analysts covering First Solar, 25 carry a buy or strong buy rating — suggesting this is far from a contrarian bet.
The setup for retail investors is straightforward: First Solar’s stock has fallen 14% year-to-date, making it one of the laggards in the clean energy sector. That underperformance has created an asymmetric risk-reward ahead of a binary catalyst. If the Section 232 ruling comes in favorably — widely expected by early August — First Solar could see a significant re-rating. The company is also the only major U.S.-headquartered solar panel manufacturer operating at scale, which gives it a structural advantage in any scenario where tariffs or trade restrictions limit Chinese solar imports. Investors willing to hold through the August catalyst window have a credible 42% upside case, according to Wells Fargo.
