SpaceX delivered its first earnings report as a public company Tuesday, posting second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion — up 92% year over year and roughly $900 million ahead of Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $6.9 billion. The blowout top-line result should have been cause for celebration. Instead, SPCX stock fell sharply in after-hours trading, and for good reason: the numbers were overshadowed by a $541 million net loss tied largely to a decline in the value of the company’s bitcoin holdings, and by a massive insider share unlock arriving on August 6.
Breaking down the revenue, Starlink contributed $4.3 billion to the quarter — a business that is clearly profitable and scaling fast. SpaceXAI, the company’s artificial intelligence infrastructure division, added $2.6 billion. Capital expenditures came in at $18.37 billion, slightly below the $18.58 billion estimate, as the company continues to invest aggressively in AI infrastructure, rockets, and Starship development. Management reiterated their target of reaching a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by end of 2026, including expected revenue from Cursor, the AI coding platform acquired earlier this year. The lockup structure is what has investors most on edge heading into Thursday. On August 6, the first of nine staggered insider share unlock tranches hits, freeing roughly 911.5 million shares worth more than $123 billion at current prices — one of the largest single-day supply events in recent stock market history. Analysts at Bernstein called the lockup schedule “unusually complex,” noting that SpaceX chose nine distinct unlock dates rather than a single 180-day cliff.
For retail investors, the earnings print itself argues for the long-term thesis: 92% revenue growth, a clear path toward profitability in Starlink, and a $100 billion annual revenue target that is no longer speculative. The short-term volatility is real, however, and driven by mechanics rather than fundamentals. If you already own SPCX, the key question is whether Thursday’s unlock triggers meaningful insider selling — or whether the market has already priced in the supply shock. Bull-case price targets run as high as $190, while bears point to $76 as a risk scenario if sentiment sours. Investors with a multi-year horizon may find any post-lockup dip more attractive than the IPO price. But entering new positions this week carries event risk that is unusually visible on the calendar.
