Here’s a plot twist nobody saw coming: the Middle East is on fire, oil prices are doing their best impression of a rocket ship, and somehow that’s bad news for your favorite AI stocks. Sounds weird? It is. But Tom Hancock, a fund manager whose track record beats 98% of his peers, is connecting dots that most investors are still squinting at.
Here’s the thing: when the Strait of Hormuz gets locked down (which is basically happening right now), Middle Eastern oil producers can’t sell their oil. No sales means no cash. And when you’re sitting on billions in oil money that suddenly can’t flow anywhere, you don’t just shrug and move on. That money usually ends up in US tech companies, private equity, and venture capital funds. It’s the financial equivalent of a global money-go-round.
But what happens when the music stops? Hancock thinks tech gets hit hard. Not because of energy costs—though that’s part of it—but because the capital dries up. Companies like TSMC, which are already borrowing heavily to build AI data centers, suddenly find themselves in a tighter spot. Their profit margins get squeezed. Foreign investment slows to a trickle. It’s not an immediate apocalypse, but it’s the kind of slow-burn problem that keeps CFOs up at night.
The kicker? This only becomes a real problem if the Strait stays closed for months. But here’s where it gets spicy: Iran’s new Supreme Leader just said they’re keeping it shut. Oil hit $100 a barrel on Thursday. The dominoes are starting to line up.
So what’s a smart investor supposed to do? Hancock’s answer is surprisingly straightforward: healthcare. Not because it’s boring—though it kind of is—but because it actually works when everything else is falling apart.
Healthcare is what Wall Street calls a ‘defensive sector,’ which is fancy talk for ‘this stuff doesn’t care about the business cycle.’ But Hancock isn’t just hiding in healthcare because it’s safe. He genuinely thinks it’s one of the best opportunities in the market right now, fundamentals and all.
He’s particularly bullish on UnitedHealth Group. Why? Because it’s the kind of stock that gets hammered whenever there’s news about Medicare policy or CMS regulations. Everyone panics, sells, and then it bounces back. Hancock sees that volatility as an opportunity—when everyone’s distracted by geopolitical chaos, that’s when boring healthcare stocks do their best work.
If you want broader exposure without picking individual stocks, there are ETFs like the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) and the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH). They give you the defensive play without the single-stock risk.
The bottom line? The Iran situation is real, oil prices are going up, and tech is more vulnerable than people think. But that doesn’t mean you have to panic-sell everything. Sometimes the smartest move is to quietly shift into the sectors that thrive when everyone else is freaking out. Healthcare might not be sexy, but it pays the bills—especially when the world is on fire.